110k New Jobs expected for Greater Manchester
6th January 2015
A thriving Greater Manchester is expected to create 110,000 new jobs over the next decade.
That's according to an economic forecast by analysts from Oxford Economics for city centre-based think tank New Economy.
It reveals that the region can expect the major jobs boost by 2024 - which is a 10,000 rise on last year's forecast.
Experts behind the data expect 128,000 more people will be living in Greater Manchester in 10 years time but there will 17,000 FEWER claiming Jobseekers' Allowance.
Forecasts also show there will be 62,000 new jobs in the business, financial and professional services sector, strongly supported by 26,000 posts in cultural and creative and 14,000 jobs in the construction industries.
The figures, part of the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM), are produced and updated every year by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority.
Its purpose is to provide a consistent evidence base for use in strategy and policy development.
Sir Howard Bernstein, chief executive of Manchester council, told the M.E.N. the promising forecast wasn't a surprise.
"It shows what the inherent economic potential of Manchester and the wider region actually is," he said.
"Commercial professional services, widening the business base around technology, increasing science and culture-related activities - they are all part of what has been going on and what we have been doing for the past five years.
"This model suggests we are intensifying that trend."
GMFM revealed that the Greater Manchester economy is currently worth £54.8bn per annum, and the region has a population of 2.7m people with 1.4m jobs.
By 2024 it is predicted that the region's economy will be worth more than £70bn a year, which is an average annual growth of three per cent between now and 2024.
The top three occupation types by growth in the next decade are expected to be: professional (17,000 jobs), associate professional and technical (14,000 jobs) and management, directors and senior officials (12,000 jobs).
Economic output predictions were measured by Gross Value Added (GVA), the value of goods and services produced in an area.
GMFM revealed the major drivers of growth over the next decade are expected to be the business, financial and professional services sector, with a £7.3bn GVA increase, wholesale and retail, with a £2.4bn GVA increase, and cultural and creative, with a £2.3bn GVA increase.
A 1.7 per cent per annum growth in manufacturing is also expected. But the forecast model showed employment levels in the sector are likely to reduce by 10,000 jobs as the industry continues to move towards high value production.
John Holden, director of research at economic think tank New Economy, said the 2014 indicators may yet be revised upwards as the figures haven't fully taken into account the recent devolution deal.
"That has the potential to boost growth further," he said.
"However, erring on the side of caution we would also advise those using the forecasts to keep check of the many factors which could potentially disrupt this direction, not least the possibility of another EU-wide recession."
Describing GMFM as the UK's most sophisticated local economic forecasting tool he added: "As with all forecasts, the results should be treated with a degree of caution, but they nevertheless provide a robust basis on which both businesses and the public sector can develop plans for the future.
"The indicators are broadly more positive with this year's update, reflecting improved economic performance over the past 12 months and may yet need to be revised upwards as the figures do not fully take into account the recent devolution deal, which has the potential to boost growth further."
WHAT are people saying to ???boom' forecast for the region
Kerry Houston, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said: "The Greater Manchester economy is expected to remain as a key driver of the north west.
"Employment growth over the next decade will continue to be dependent upon gains in the professional services and admin & support sectors.
"The public services sectors, by contrast, are forecast to endure further contractions, as austerity measures continue to be implemented.
"This sectorial story has implications for the pattern of growth across the city region."
Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell the economic forecast as ???good news' for the region
She said: "This report shows that Manchester is growing and still has huge potential.
"We need to go further in that ensuring that Manchester's young people, and those currently out of work, have the skills, education and opportunity to reap the benefits of this growth."
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